Libraries of the Future

Approach and scenario selection

The scenarios provide a framework for discussing the desired future for the library or the sector. There are two main approaches to using scenarios as part of formal strategic planning - aligning the strategy to a favoured scenario, or aligning the strategy to common elements in all the scenarios:

• Align the strategic plan to one scenario. Identify a preferred scenario for the institution and use it as a ‘planning focus’. The preferred scenario may be the one judged to be most probable (eg early indicators might suggest that a specific scenario would be most likely to occur), or the most desirable (if the organisation is in a position to create the necessary conditions for the desired scenario in their sector).

• Align the plan to the common elements across two or more scenarios, and aim for the development of a resilient strategy that can deal with wide variations in business conditions. This is the most demanding approach as it requires careful evaluation of the different elements of the strategy against differing assumptions about the future.

Having decided on the approach, the next step is to review the LotF scenarios to be used and decide if:

• either the LotF scenario(s) to be used is/are appropriate for the institution/sector; or
• the LotF scenarios are not entirely appropriate and then generate modified or replacement scenario(s) that reflect the needs of the institution and/or library and/or sector.

The LotF scenarios are deliberately aimed at the sector level and so it is unlikely that any one institution would be in a position to create the necessary conditions to ensure that the scenario occurs. This does not preclude development of alternative scenarios for which this would be the case.

An approach to strategic planning is described here.